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 Tropical Cyclones 2010
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Hurricane GASTON will threaten Haiti next week, Storm Hermine could follow soon after

Haiti Action.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — Tropical Storm GASTON was only given a 10% chance, yesterday, but has surprised the over-taxed forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami (NHC) by its "vigorous" development overnight. Some of the global models used by the NHC "do not even acknowledge that the cyclone exists now or in the near future…" But the visible satellite images clearly show the early closed convection that belie the computer generated models and have the forecasters sharpening their neglected pencils and relying more on past experience.

GASTON has become the seventh named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season and the fourth named storm of the last two weeks. The season had been relatively quiet through July and August.

As GASTON is primarily being steered by a large deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north that should keep it on its current westerly heading for the next four days, the interests in Haiti should be keeping a closer watch on this tropical cyclone than on the last three. GASTON is tracking closer and slower to the ITCZ and could make it the first major Hurricane to pass the Windward Islands into the Caribbean. If the storm tracks closer to the GFNI model, it's development to a major hurricane is more likely.

Over the next few days, GASTON will be heading into significant vertical shear that could weaken the system and break up the closed convection. Further east, is yet another developing system that could become a tropical depression as soon as tomorrow, develop into Storm HERMINE and follow GASTON by about three days.

RAW

NEXT UP: Gaston & Hermine enter stage left…

FIONA rushes to join Hurricane EARL over Haiti

Haiti Action.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — Dare we say this is a "stormy" relationship? In the 100 year reprise of "The Earl and the Girl," with Tropical Storm FIONA substituting for Liza Shoddam, it appears that an elitist comedy of errors provides yet another close call for Haiti. In this remake, it appears that FIONA will follow a cold trail in the EARL's path and get worn out when she tries to rub shoulders with the rich and "mingle."

Had you read the masterful and encyclopedic Maxwell column — Under the Gun September 11, 2004 — you would have known, already, that a hurricane is a heat-seeking cyclone that feeds off of a warm sea surface leaving behind a slightly cooler trail. FIONA is approaching the EARL in that slightly cooler path and is not gaining as much strength as it would have if it followed another path — like closer to the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) — to the south. The drama of last week provided another "close call" for Haiti, while the attention of everyone — who isn't living under a tarp or in a tent — is drawn to the "Tragicomedy of Exclusion," which was intended — by design — to be a "distraction."

Since tropical cyclones — in the northern hemisphere — rotate counter-clockwise (admittedly, in the digital age, this is antediluvian description will befuddle the young'ns) struggling Tropical Storm FIONA will be figuratively "kicked in the teeth" by Hurricane EARL strolling up the red carpet whistling "Dixie and slammed up against the western wall of the subtropical ridge." All in all, science doesn't betray elitist fabrication in this independent adaption of the "elements" besieging those who are disconnected with the Monied Class — who are now, suddenly, of the Haitian "Internally Displaced" class.

FIONA is still moving forward at a fairly quick 21mph with a 290º heading, while EARL is moving at 14mph/311º . Last Hurricane Hunter readings showed that the floundering tropical storm FIONA still has some wind left in her soul at 35-40mph in tattered regions. It is expected that FIONA will turn to the right of EARL's path and quickly dissipate in the subtropical region with the additional northerly shear that will finally tear apart this mass of swirling air and thunderstorms.

On the other hand, the interests to the north will be momentarily fixated on Hurricane EARL which has the potential of slamming into the anti-worker state North Carolina as a Category FOUR hurricane over the Labor Day weekend…

In the 5PM AST Advisories of the National Hurricane Center in Miami state…

LARGE AND INTENSE [is that "intense or "in tents?" Is the EARL really an interloper after all?] HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

Well… … tell that to the folks in the north of Haiti. On this day in 2008, Tropical Storm Hanna was 225 miles NW — 23.6 N 71.0W — of where Hurricane EARL is now before making a U-turn above the Turks and Caicos Islands and sat just north of Haiti for a few days before returning to the same stroll up the Eastern Seaboard. Tropical cyclones travel where they will. With the close proximity of FIONA, statistical averages become unpredictable, as with most stormy relationships.

The outer rainbands of EARL are glancing over President Preval's home, further saturating the countryside in anticipation of the impending storms of the 2010 Hurricane season. The next tropical wave of note wandering in the ITCZ has been downgraded for a few more days. FIONA could still decide to stop chasing the EARL and take a Caribbean cruise instead. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Stay tuned…

RAW

View the latest observations near HURRICANE EARL

View the latest observations near HURRICANE GASTON

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 020255
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

GASTON HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
WRAPS FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION...AND
DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS CURRENTLY T3.3/51 KT...BUT
A RECENT 0013 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25-30 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN INCREASED A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE CYCLONE...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THIS
COULD PREVENT THE DRY AIR FROM HAVING A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT.
STILL...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE GFDL AND HWRF ONLY STRENGTHEN GASTON TO
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE...THE SHIPS MODEL
MAKES IT A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...AND THE LGEM BRINGS IT TO
CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST IDEAL AND THEN VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER WHEN EASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE A BIT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS BEGUN TO SLOW
DOWN...POSSIBLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS
NORTHWEST. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/10 KT. WITH THE BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT IS
STILL ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.4N 37.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 13.8N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 42.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 14.5N 45.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 49.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Bookmark this page for the 2010 Hurricane Season

2010 storm names:Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter

From the 2008 archive click image for original Aug 30, 2008 article

Will Hurricane Hanna threaten Haiti? click image for original Aug 30, 2008 article

Previous reports

Hurricane Bill will threaten Haiti this week Aug 17

Hurricane Ana could threaten Haiti next week
(but Hurricane Bill arrived months ago) Aug 11

Haiti waits in fear for Hurricane Ike Sep 4

Haiti’s deadly hurricane season just getting started Sep 1

Will Hurricane Hanna threaten Haiti? Aug 30

Dangerous Hurricane Gustav will hit Haiti Aug 25

Haiti's crops will be devastated by Hurricane Gustav Aug 26

Furious Fay floods Florida as a new storm approaches Haiti Aug 21

Furious Tropical Storm Fay drenches Haiti Aug 15

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
What "Category 1-2-3-4-5" means

Key to offical Tracking Chart symbols
click above link to get original Powerpoint file