Hurricane TOMAS predicted over Haiti by Friday,
or not…
Haiti Action.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — A weakening Tropical Storm TOMAS is currently located 135 miles Northeast of Curaçao and traveling WbS @ 12mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida sees a strong possibility that TOMAS might not survive the westerly vertical shear if it starts a more northerly turn as most prediction models show.
The consensus models appear to be a lagging indicator and haven't caught up with the unpredicted change in the mid-level ridge, reported on here — HaitiAction.net — Saturday morning. ( A good kick to the servers should straighten things out. ) The NHC — last week — was expecting that the mid-level ridge would be eroded by a developing trough over central Cuba. While the trough is still apparent, the mid-level ridge has had more impact on the trough than vice-versa. The strongest part of the rig has widened out north of Haiti and over Cuba, when it was forecast to simply dissipate as it moved Eastward of the "Hispaniola" island.
All of that atmospheric mumbling may be of little interest to many — including the aforementioned algorithm crunching machines — but it may mean that TOMAS could simply stay on a westerly course for a few days longer and miss the beleaguered nation of Haiti entirely. Instead of moving through the strong vertical shear band, to more favorable hurricane development conditions, the storm dissipati shear has said ahead of Tropical Storm TOMAS and could simply "shred" the cyclone into a disorganized mass of angry wet air.
On the other hand, interests in the Windward Islands, especially the Virgin Islands area, are closely monitoring the same models and are providing favorable odds to the HWRF model that was dead on accurate in predicting the U-turn and intensity of Hurricane OMAR in 2008.
It still remains that TOMAS may travel into Haiti over a few days and dump volumes of rainfall over the southern departments causing deadly mudslides and flash floods. The resulting effects on Haiti's internally displaced can't be simply measured, but, we will be here to report it.
View the latest observations near Hurricane TOMAS
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