Haiti’s 2015 Hurricane season heating up, DANNY could visit by the end of next week

July 30, 2015
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94L Invest - 30 Jul 2015 0730Z - Location: 12.0 N - 26.8 W - Winds: 25 knots - Central Pressure: 1009mb

The The birth of Hurricane DANNY could be starting about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The next few days should see some development of this storm system and the forecast track will become significantly more determinable.
Image courtesy of US Naval Research Lab

Haiti’s 2015 Hurricane season heating up, DANNY could visit by the end of next week

Saturday, Aug 1 - 1714Z - The last set of images show that 94L had not completely dissipated and, in fact is showing slight convection — 12.7N 36.8 — the system is headed directly west into a region where the cyclone could reform and develop.

Sunday, August 2 Update: The storm system previously known as Invest 24L has been downgraded to a Tropical Wave by the NHC over the last 24 hours. However, satellite imagery show that the storm has been strengthening slightly and is show some convection. A stated here before if it can track south of 15ºN there's a small chance that the Low pressure zone could persist and strengthen with the right conditions. In the region where the storm is traveling the dry Saharan Air Layer has dissipated a bit and moisture conditions have become more favorable for cyclone development. In the morning report the 8am NHC forecast should show the change in conditions.

Friday July 31st UPDATE: As stated yesterday, 94L is headed into a region less favorable to cyclone formation. Contrary to NHC description in the Outlook body, there was a slight improvement to the convection overnight. The short of it is if 94L sustains it’s current westerly heading, it could dissipate quickly. If it tracks southerly into more favorable conditions in the Monsoon Trough the system is more likely to gain intensity.

800 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

1. A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Berg

The other system just East of the Cape Verde Islands should take on a storm disturbance classification from the NOAA soon.


Thursday July 31, 2015

This Aqua Modis satellite vapor image shows the two weather systems. If the second one , to the right, develops into an additional storm it could become Hurricane ERIKA and be even stronger than DANNY.
Dry Saharan Air Layer Analysis (shown by red regions) - Invest Position - 20150731/1200UTC (red “I” in center)
HaitiAction.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — As far as typical hurricane seasons go Haiti has been fairly quiet for the last two seasons, all of that could change in a couple of weeks as two very ominous weather systems emerge from the West Coast of Africa. In an average year The Island could have been threatened by about three significant tropical cyclones by the end of July; the three named storms this year were all formed well away from the Caribbean. However, the next two likely tropical cyclones — DANNY and ERIKA — could show up near Haiti within the same week.

The USA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida (NHC) is presently forecasting that the storm 94L Invest (12.0N-26.8W) has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours and a heading of 280º. The opinion of HaitiAction.net is that winds over 25 knots could be present at the time of this story and a heading of 260º could be seen over the next two days with significant strengthening possible.

However, in a couple days, the storm will likely travel in a region of patchy dry air which is capable of entirely dissipating the storm over the next four days. Right now, 94L is in a region — southwest of the Cape Verde Islands — that is favorable for tropical cyclone development. If the storm follows the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) along 10º N within the next two days the NHC forecast should change significantly.

The Atlantic Subtropical Ridge extends across most of the most of the Mid-Atlantic and, along with the steering currents should keep the two storms below 15º N for the next week and on a heading directly into the center of the Caribbean. The Government of Haiti should begin a comprehensive assessment of its civil defense capacity to determine what is needed for a more active Hurricane Season.

HaitiAction.net will closely monitor the development of these conditions and provide an update on this page if needed.


BOOKMARK the Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page for latest updates during this hurricane season.

View the latest observations near DANNY

HaitiAction.net will be tracking the progress of this storm. For the latest official updates, go to the Centre National de Météorologie (CNM) web page Many forecast and tracking resources can be found on the Tropical Cyclone page at HaitiAction.net

BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page
For Hurricane Season resources and updates

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